‘Grand Theft Auto IV’ Carjacks ‘Iron Man’ Film?
In a bit of chilling news for Marvel Entertainment stockholders, industry analyst Mike Hickey of Janco Parters offered up the following assessment this week regarding the impact of the upcoming Grand Theft Auto IV videogame release on ticket sales for the Iron Man feature film:
We anticipate the video game release of GTA IV on April 29 could dampen the potential from Iron Man’s theatrical release on May 2.
In a story reported by Next-Gen.biz, Hollywood executives are citing last year’s release of the videogame Halo 3 as a major factor in poor ticket sales for September 2007 and fear the same thing will happen when the virtual crime spree of Grand Theft Auto IV hits shelves. However, as many have pointed out, the quality of the month’s films could also be blamed (for reference, see Good Luck Chuck and Mr. Woodcock).
Hickey went on to state:
The last significant video game release, Halo 3, generated over $300 million in sales from its first week in the market. Halo 3 was released on just one platform, the Xbox 360, and attached nearly 50 percent of the installed base. GTA IV will be released on both the Xbox 360 and PS3, which have both significantly increased their installed bases since the release of Halo 3. A GTA IV 25 percent attach rate to a combined Xbox 360 and PS3 installed base at its April 29 release would imply 5.8 million units sold or roughly $360 million in retail sales the first week of the game’s release.
ComicMix would like to point out the best-selling game of 2007 was Call of Duty 4: Modern Combat. It was released in December and movie box office sales were just fine that month. If the buzz and reviews for the Iron Man movie are good, we’ll stop playing games, steal a car and go see the film.
What if the Iron Man game is really great? Will that cut into movie ticket sales? I suspect not…Movies are, what, one-fifth the price of a good video game? Well, granted, that's without popcorn.
…or the date OR the family. I took two daughters to Hannah Montana in 3D! One large soda, one large popcorn and $55 later…Oh well, my daughters LOVED it.
Yeah, the Hannah Montana thing eludes me — but my daughter and I go to NHL hockey games (she's a bit old for the Hannah thing) and that sets us back even more.
This will make for an interesting dilemma, actually. I love me some Iron Man, but I bought a PS3 this past December with an eye toward the GTA IV release date. If the game lives up to my expectations I'll wait a week or two before heading to theatres. Also worth noting: both the movie and the game are directed at the exact same target market– about ten years younger than me. Not that Mr. Woodcock was directed at the baby boomers or anything, mind you…
Thanks for linking to us when mentioning COD4. It was noted and we will look for a chance to link to you in the future. -Ve3tro.com
I have a hard time believing that fans of both will be forced to make a choice between buying the GT game or seeing the Iron Man movie. If anything the game can always be rented and if anyone is hurt it's the game maker because the game will like be 45-55 bucks. Tonyhttp://www.ironmantonystark.com
I heard that this would seriously affect sales for the movie the same way halo 3 messed up the dewey cox movie… http://gorillaswap.com